The likelihood of La Nina now higher says BOM
The Bureau of Metrology (BOM) has just released information showing 2015 and 2016's El Nino weather pattern has dropped down to weak to moderate levels. Meanwhile in the wings, La Nina's probable appearance for 2016 has become a lot more likely.
The increased probability of La Nina comes off the back of one of the strongest El Ninos in almost 20 years. The most recent El Nino has been linked to a drastic increase in crop damages, flash flooding across the county, as well as globally, and some extreme forest fires that have threatened the prosperity of Australia's rural regions.
The weather has also placed unwanted strain on areas which relied heavily on rainwater tanks for their water supply.
The increase in the probability of La Nina is most likely due to changes and shifts in the Pacific Ocean and the surrounding atmosphere. When this information is combined with current BOM climate model outlooks, the chance of a La Nina weather system is now at a 50 per cent likelihood.
This could be potentially bad news for a lot of agricultural sectors within Australia, as some expert analysis are saying it could decline a global supply of large grains. Although the United States is still the largest producers of grains, and stands to lose the most economically if a strong La Nina dose indeed take effect, it will still effect Australia negatively.
Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist for the National Australia Bank told Reuters that while global supplies are currently ample, one of the only situations that would jeopardise this surplus "would be a possible La Nina".
While La Nina has many negative effects, it could provide a good opportunity to stock up on water supplies using a quality water tank, as rain fall is expected to increase during a La Nina season.
By Gerald Beckton